At last some thorough analysis on how Peak Oil links in with global warming – go here for the entry-site (HT Energy Bulletin).
Key argument:
– the IPCC do not take resource constraints into account in their climate models;
– all 40 IPCC scenarios assume that more hydrocarbons will be used than a resource analysis suggest is physically possible;
– a ‘producer-limited’ analysis suggests that CO2 will peak at 460ppm in 2070;
– the temperature rise is approximately 0.8C by 2100;
– a political ‘Super-Kyoto’ agreement would reduce that figure by 0.04C;
– it’s more important to reduce ultimate (total) hydro-carbon use than to slow it down.
Absolutely fascinating. Lots of implications to ponder. Youtube video of his talk is below (67 minutes)