Good, hard headed and sober analysis pouring cold water on the conspiracy theory here; taking aim at an analysis here.

Since writing about this before, I’ve grown more sceptical – but I’m not yet completely convinced that it will have no effect on the exchange rate of the dollar.

As much as anything else, I see it as having a psychological effect – knocking the dollar off its pedestal – and along with many other reasons for dollar weakness, I can see it contributing to a more or less gentle decline in dollar value.

We shall see.

UPDATE: see also here.