Shall we prepare ourselves for the last ever Conservative Prime Minister?

So, Theresa May – and hopefully her WA – are now moving in to the rear view mirror.
I wrote a little while back about God’s plan for Brexit and my main sense is that, no matter what the decisions of individual actors, there is a larger picture going on, determining whether those decisions have any effect.

[Brief aside: I’m more and more persuaded that the EU is going to break down in the next few years (principally through a renewed financial/Euro crisis) and if it survives it will only do so on a radically reformed basis. It will either be a union – maybe a smaller union – propped up by German money, in which case there will be a ‘continuity EU’; or else there will be a new organisation inheriting elements of it. It’s the fact that the French have so many problems that makes me think it will be the latter.]

What is on my mind is the sense that so many actions being taken will not have the effect that is expected; indeed, I think they will often have precisely the opposite effect. In particular, there are lots of assumptions that whoever replaces Theresa May will occupy the post of Prime Minister for a good stretch of time. Consider this line of thought:

– it’s very unlikely that the Conservative Party will elect someone who rules out ‘no deal’ – indeed, I expect the Euro election results to be so bad for the Conservatives that those running for leader will each seek to ‘outFarage’ the others, and make an active embrace of ‘no deal’ as a realistic option a key part of their platform;
– there is a clear majority against no deal in Parliament;
– if we get to end September, with no movement from the EU on, eg, NI, along with lots of noises from Macron etc that ‘this can’t go on’, what will that majority do when they are facing the very real prospect of a no deal exit? in particular, what will the likes of Dominic Grieve do?

I would expect that, with the prospect of a no deal looming large at the end of October, as soon as Parliament reconvenes after the conferences, Jeremy Corbyn will submit a vote of no confidence. Enough MPs will vote for it – so the new Conservative leader will no longer be Prime Minister – they would probably be the last ever Conservative PM. (Would July – October be the shortest modern premiership I wonder?)

Once that happens there will then be lots of back-door politicking out of which either:
a) nobody else commands a majority – therefore an election, or
b) Corbyn (or possibly ANOther Labour person) cobbles together a cross-party coalition for the purposes of implementing a second referendum with Remain on the ballot paper (against what? don’t know, can’t guess) and forms a government on the basis of at least a one-year supply and confidence agreement with other groups (SNP, Libs, CHUK and pro-Remain Tories).

The EU will, in this situation, be cheering on the second referendum crowd from the sidelines, and I would expect them to be happy to provide an extension for that purpose. Unless Macron goes mad of course.

I’m guessing the latter, and this will absolutely enrage the voting public and catalyse a major shift in UK politics
(MPs will hide from the consequences for as long as they can – I can’t see them voting for a new GE if they can avoid it). A second referendum will be truly awful, but afterwards, whatever the outcome, there will be an epochal GE, out of which I expect to see two major parties remaining – TBP and whatever the Remain party turns into once we have left the EU (possibly an enlarged LibDem/Green alliance).

For what it’s worth, I’ll definitely be voting for the non-Boris candidate!

3 thoughts on “Shall we prepare ourselves for the last ever Conservative Prime Minister?

  1. You seem certain that The Brexit Party will be a force for good in the political shake-up you say is coming, so I’m intrigued to know: besides leaving the EU, what are its policies? What are the policies that you believe will actually help the poor of the UK? Because all I’ve been able to find are policies that include being involved the Brexit negotiations and working to ‘stop any dodgy May/Corbyn Brexit deal’. Not much about the shape of post-Brexit Britain.

    If we look back at Farage’s time as UKIP leader, I’m no closer to knowing, besides his desire to introduce an insurance-based health system.

    But let’s look at his actions. After achieving his goal of winning the EU referendum, rather than leading UKIP and the U.K. into a post-Brexit world, he resigned as leader of the party within days. What does that tell you about his conviction? Because it tells me that he knows someone will have to stand up and tell the people of Britain that Brexit won’t be the straightforward fairytale he’s led supporters to believe it will be. So rather than be blamed for lying and letting down the population, he’ll step down again and, when Brexit leads to difficulties, do as he has done previously and blame weak governments and prime ministers.

    Here’s hoping I’m wrong though!

  2. Hi Scott – there’s room for hope, and that’s enough for me at the moment. The constitution of TBP is available on line (via a politico article if memory serves) and it is essentially mainstream centre-right, what the Conservative & Unionist party used to be.

    • Constitution does not equal policy and Farage has been brilliantly clever in convincing huge numbers of people to propel him back into mainstream politics on one single issue: leaving the EU. So these new Brexit Party MEPs will take their £120k pa salaries + expenses and continue to do what Farage has done for years: vote for almost nothing; show up, grandstand, leave. He also recently said “Maifesto equals lie”. Chilling, considering that’s what makes a political party accountable to voters.

      The Party’s constitution (the party is being set up as a company rather than a traditional political party set-up) actually makes Farage all-powerful: majority owner; ability to hire and fire the board; no members, only registered supporters, which means people are paying yet have no say on the direction of the party – people are basically paying £25 to give Farage their personal data and going to the polls and voting for him, which they could do for free.

      Here’s two points to consider:

      1. Farage has always advocated a no-deal Brexit. So why does he want to be part of negotiations alongside the new Conservative leader? “We’re here to negotiate!”, “Ok, but you want a no-deal Brexit.”, “Yes, but we want to negotiate”, “Ok, so how do you negotiate a no-deal Brexit?”. This is just a vanity project for him and no-one has noticed it.

      2. Farage has now come out and said the Brexit Party will run at the next general election. Let’s take him at his word. Let’s also assume he puts together policies (but not a manifesto – another clever move). His whole MO is the politics of emotion, the blame game; so we will have another Donald Trump on our hands and, as he makes moves that hurt the poor, or discriminates against people, supporters will allow it because Brexit is for the greater good, so maybe it’s time for everyone to pay for healthcare through insurance or be left out in the cold. All the while, driving policy that helps a very small, but wealthy section of society. All this will lead to is greater division – a more divided nation, screaming on both sides.

      The politics of emotion – that’s where we are, Sam. Farage knows it and he’s using the model perfected by Steve Bannon to bring it to the U.K.

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