Read Matthew Simmons’ book ‘Twilight in the Desert’. Very interesting, although also very technical, and I must confess to skipping some of the middle chapters when he goes through the different oil fields in Saudi Arabia. Unless you’re a geologist I think you can get the gist from reading just one…

But his main point is sobering. The Saudi oil reserves are nothing like as extensive as generally believed, and given the production from the existing oil fields that has taken place, especially over the last twenty years, it is plausible to think that Saudi oil production will begin to decline within the next few years, possibly quite suddenly. Well if that happens, that will be the oil shock to end all oil shocks.

Other links for Simmons work (he’s the lead Investment Banker for the oil industry) are here.