The financial crisis is irrelevant

Just a thought: however bad it gets, the financial crisis is solvable. Whether it takes five, ten, twenty years to sort through all the deleveraging there is nothing in this financial crisis that is going to seriously threaten industrial civilisation. After all, we’ve been through similar things before. There is no reason why, in 20 years time, the system can’t be doing exactly what it was before – chastened, no doubt, but not fundamentally reformed. There will be all sorts of suffering in the meantime – and we need to do all we can to address that, and support those who go to the wall – but it is not, in itself, civilisation-threatening.

In that respect it is very different to the crisis we face with respect to resource limits. These do seriously threaten industrial civilisation. In twenty years time, we will either have shifted to sustainable patterns of life, or we will have embarked upon die-off. Or, perhaps more likely, some will have chosen one way, some will have chosen the other.

The pointer that will tell you if someone ‘gets it’ is whether they continue to mouth the platitudes about restoring economic growth. Growth – in the sense of anything physical – will not be restored any time soon, certainly not this side of 2050, possibly not ever. Ritual invocations of growth are simply a manifestation of contemporary idolatry. It is a god that has toppled from its plinth.

I can’t help but be reminded of Brueggemann’s analysis in ‘The Prophetic Imagination’ when he describes the conflict between Moses and Pharaoh as one between two systems of Gods – the living God versus the gods of the status quo. Each of the plagues topples one of the Egyptian gods – and eventually they are all shown to be worthless.

“The Gods of Egypt could not! The Scientists of the regime could not! The imperial religion was dead! The politics of oppression had failed! That is the ultimate criticism that the assured and alleged power of the dominant culture is now shown to be fraudulent.” The powers have been named, and in being named, they have been dethroned. Now that the dominant system has been unmasked as temporary, that its claims to divine eternity have been exposed, its foundations begin to crumble. “By the middle of the plague cycle Israel has disengaged from the empire, cries no more to it, expects nothing of it, acknowledges it in no way, knows it cannot keep its promises, and knows that nothing is either owed to it or expected of it. That is the ultimate criticism that leads to dismantling.” (see my longer post on this topic here)

So: Obama as Pharaoh? That’s certainly what the appointment of people like Geithner would suggest.

Some places that predicted the financial crisis

Just for the record, there were several places that predicted the present economic crisis, starting from a point many years ago. Some just in general terms, but some in very specific terms. These are some of the ones that I read, but I’m sure there are others.

Nouriel Roubini
Financial Armageddon
The Automatic Earth
Clusterf**k Nation
Global Guerrillas
Club Orlov
Ann Pettifor
And, in general terms (eg here) yours truly.

So when someone in the mainstream media (or Gordon Brown) says ‘nobody predicted this’ you’ll be able to say that actually, people did predict it, it was foreseeable, it’s just that you’re incompetent…

TBTM20090122


Can you imagine Elijah being prosecuted for mocking the prophets of Baal? Does not the assertion of the supremacy of one God over the pantheon of others necessitate the humiliation of these false gods and idols? Is not the very choice to follow one particular faith over another an act of ‘discrimination’? Islam is not a race, but a religio-political ideology. And now it appears that a Dutch MP – a citizen of the EU – may be prosecuted for daring to criticise an ideology. This decision will have every member of the BNP wringing their hands with glee, and leave every libertarian of moderate political persuasion profoundly perplexed. Doubtless no British MP will dare to comment on this story at all (not even those who profess to be immensely concerned about the erosion of liberties) for fear of inciting the BNP to excessive gloating or of offending the UK’s Muslim population and thereby losing their votes with two elections imminent.

TBTE20090120


That was a good speech. My one quibble was the deference to Happy Motoring rather than talking about the need to invest in rail. But I love the reference to virtue, and the tone seemed exactly right. Didn’t expect anything less of course.

TBTE20090119


“The only reality-based solution to dealing with bankrupt, insolvent institutions is to let them fail and let them file for bankruptcy protection. Once this has happened their debt is largely discharged. To not do so, or as Ben Bernanke’s plan would have it, to give all of these insolvent institutions billions of dollars to keep them afloat, means that (1) a multi-trillion dollar deficit becomes the tax burden of future generations of Americans, (2) those who became rich on their own excesses are not held to account and retain their individual wealth while the majority of Americans struggle to get by, and (3) the speculators and gamblers who went into debt are released from any responsibility—they are free to find new ways to exploit the system, and they know that if, in the near future, they run up bad debts again, relief awaits in the form of help from the government. Hence there is no deterrent to this type of behavior. And so Ben Bernanke’s plan, at best, creates an enormous tax burden for future generations of Americans while simultaneously doing nothing to deter would-be speculators and Ponzi-schemers from plying their trade time and time again. In other words, the Bernanke and Obama plans are not solutions, they are obfuscations. They do nothing to change the system that has brought us to this point.”

(One of my favourite sites.)