Or, in MoQ terms, the higher levels exist on the basis of the lower, and when the lower levels hit a boundary, so do the levels above.

The inorganic level is about physics and chemistry, geology – this is the realm of Peak Oil analysis.

The social level is the realm of human institutions – eg agricultural systems and most commercial activity.

The highest level would include the ‘laws’ of economics.

Now if Peak Oil establishes a boundary at the foundation, then it doesn’t matter what happens ‘in theory’ for the higher levels – they’re going to hit a wall.

A quote from M King Hubbert:

“The world’s present industrial civilization is handicapped by the coexistence of two universal, overlapping, and incompatible intellectual systems: the accumulated knowledge of the last four centuries of the properties and interrelationships of energy; and the associated monetary culture which has evolved from folkways of prehistoric origin”.

If you listen to the economists, there is no problem – an alternative to oil will be found once the price goes up.

The physicists and geologists say: there is no alternative.

Three men are shipwrecked and washed up on a desert island, a physicist, an engineer and an economist. Once they have dried out and come to their senses, rubbed the salty grime from their eyes and looked up at their surroundings, they see that there isn’t much on their island. Lots of rocks, the occasional palm tree, a passing bird, and – miracle of miracles – a crate of tinned food. But!.. no tin opener.

Each man comes up with a way of getting the food out of the tins, appropriate to their training.

The physicist says “I know from my study of the law of gravity that if I climb that tree and drop rocks onto the tin, that the force exerted will be sufficient to split the tins, and then we can eat the food.”

The engineer says, “No, no, I’ve got a much better idea. If we use the branches of the tree as a lever we can swing rocks against the tins, and that will make things much more accurate.”

Then the economist joins in: “Hold on a second. First, let’s assume that we have a tin opener…”

There are lots of depressing things to ponder. There are also some grounds for optimism about the long term future of our civilisation.

1. Food – you don’t need fertiliser to feed the present population (or something like it) – see the Cuba experience;
2. EROEI – we have established technologies that have significantly positive EROEI – notably wind and solar;
3. Waste – western society is profoundly wasteful, and there is a lot of fat that can be relatively painlessly trimmed away (have car pools for example; insulate our homes; switch lights off when we’re not in the room…);
4. Accumulated capital – the fossil fuels haven’t just been used for Christmas lights – we also have accumulated an awful lot of wealth (like electric trains, internet=telecommuting etc) and a lot of knowledge (like the importance of hygiene);
5. Finance and law – the doomer perspective that capitalism is a Ponzi scheme established by fiat money is profoundly mistaken;
6. State power – the UK has resources to significantly moderate the impact of an oil price shock, eg by lowering the very high taxes on petrol (which will minimise the immediate economic problem), and it is also financially solvent. There are also existing plans for rationing essential goods, and the experience of WW2 is a good folk memory for enabling that to happen effectively. Unfortunately these items don’t apply to the US;
7. War – the conflict over the resources will concentrate our minds very swiftly. It’ll be horrible, but working together – which the war will demand – will be the only way through. That will be a good thing;
8. God – come let us return to the Lord, for he has torn us and he will heal us.