What sort of future for the Church of England?

One of the things that I talk about in my LUBH talks is exponential growth, ie what it actually means when something grows consistently at a certain percentage per year. In sum, consistent annual growth (eg 7.5%) means that the entity doubles in size in a particular time frame (10 years for 7.5%), when that continues then stupendous consequences follow, eg fold a piece of paper 40 times and it will touch the moon!

The same principles apply in reverse of course, which brings me to the future of the Church of England:

What this means is that, unless something dramatic changes, the Church of England will have around 80,000 members at the end of this century. I think that there are all sorts of reasons for this decline (not least George Herbert syndrome) and here I just want to draw attention to it as the context for some other things happening at the moment. (I should say that there is a very large difference between ‘the Church’ and ‘the Church of England’ – I have immense confidence in the long-term future of the former, whereas I am quite pragmatically pessimistic about the long-term future of the latter.)

Now we can all point to pockets of growth and new life that spring up here and there – there are several in this patch – and we can come up with all sorts of wonderful reasons why the Church of England is a lovely institution that deserves to continue… but I suspect that, in anything like its present form, the CofE is in the process of dying, in an oh-so-genteel way. The inertia of establishment will prop it up for quite some time before it properly enters its rest however.

Two other factors to bring in: first, all the faction-fighting, especially over women and homosexuality. It does look as if TEC is prepared to go its own way, and this will have implications for how the CofE carries on. I can’t see the split being exclusively outside England and, as I’ve said before if it is the ultra-conservative biblicists that split away (as in previous centuries) then the CofE will be able to muddle along for a bit longer; if, however, it is the (much larger) progressive side that ends up splitting away – leaving the biblicists in a much stronger position – then I suspect the decline will be much swifter.

Will anyone care, or even notice? I’m sure most people in the congregation don’t – they’ll keep turning up and worshipping and supporting the wider life for as long as they can. However, there is the second factor to consider – which is the increasingly straitened financial circumstances that we find ourselves in. The Church is having to shed jobs continuously, and more and more stipendiary posts are vanishing, to be more-or-less replaced by non-stipendiaries and lay workers. This is all well and good – and, I believe, part of God’s secret plan to renew his people in this country – but it has the inevitable side-effect of accelerating the financial crisis. As Bob Jackson has pointed out in his research, the most effective way to precipitate a decline in membership and giving is to not have an incumbent in post.

In this situation I see two main alternatives: the first is a ‘managed decline’, where at each point anyone in authority can say, looking locally, ‘we’re doing alright, it’s not so bad, we’ve slowed the decline – or even stabilised our numbers! etc etc’. This is the apocryphal boiled-frog option in reverse – we haven’t been boiled alive yet!!

The second is that we bet the house on a different way of doing things (after all, if we lose the bet, we have simply embraced the expected future consciously rather than backing into it out of fear and denial) – and it could work. What do I mean by this? I mean things like:
– setting the parishes free of the parish share system, with each parish paying for it’s own minister and housing etc (to the charge ‘what about the poor areas?’ I respond ‘what about the actions that free and faithful Christians will take?!’);
– passing ownership – and therefore the cost of upkeep – of most church buildings to the state, to be cared for as part of our national heritage;
– abandoning establishment, eg Bishops in the House of Lords, which has all sorts of pernicious consequences, one example being the canon law requiring priests to baptise any children whose parents request it;
– abandoning the parish system and reverting to the minster model for church organisation – in effect we become the Anglican church in England, just one denomination, not the Church OF England – so it would be much more like the situation in North America.

I think we need to set ourselves free, to shed the skin of establishment that has become constraining, suffocating and distancing from our environment. I believe it is what God wants – and all the travails we are presently suffering are the ways in which God is trying to get us to change our patterns of life. Bring home the revolution!

The art of constructive criticism

Last weekend I went up to the Peterborough Diocese to lead a study day on ‘Transforming the World’ using my LUBH material, which I thought went well, and the feedback has been solidly positive. Along with the positive feedback, however, came two bits of ‘criticism’, ie that I ask ‘is that clear?’ or ‘does that make sense?’ a bit too often, and I have a tendency to smile too much (something of a nervous tic) which might suggest that I don’t take the material as seriously as might be expected. This I felt was an excellent example of constructive criticism – things that I can do something about to continually improve my presentation skills so that the message gets across ever more effectively.

I do think that our culture as a whole, and clergy in particular, need training in how to give constructive criticism; it’s an incredibly useful art and would probably lead to many fewer of the conflicts now afflicting us if we were able to practise it more effectively. I suppose it’s a way of ‘speaking the truth in love’, which is something I need to work on myself (that is, I think I’ve got the ‘speaking the truth’ bit down OK, it’s the latter that needs attention….)

On not wanting to be a Bishop

Every so often, someone who knows me reasonably well – as opposed to extremely well – will either ask me if I want to be, or suggest that I will end up being, a bishop. The trouble comes when they don’t take my denials at face value and think I’m coming on all Heseltiney, but I really don’t think it’s an attractive job, and I don’t feel any particular vocational call in that direction (for which I am most grateful, thanks boss). I am an ambitious person, but my ambitions lie in different directions, partly all the material associated with my book, partly in (and this is my real deep dark secret) a desire to one day run a theological college and train priests for the ministry. The sort of priests I most admire tend to be like John Keble who turned down a Bishopric (and whose feast we celebrate today – which partly provoked this post) and David Hope who gave up being an Archbishop in order to return to parish ministry.

However….

Having said all that, I do occasionally see things that make me question my certainty on the topic – and this post from Nick Baines is one such. Perhaps being a Bishop is not the muzzle that I perceive it to be!!

Our image of Palin

Erik’s comment got two ‘bravos’ from NMMNG and Al, so I guess it’s worth saying something about it up front. After all, as Erik says “as a priest, you [sh]ould find such hypocrisy, used as it is to violate the trust of the duty she has to the people of Alaska, to be utterly appalling”. Clearly if I did believe that Palin was hypocritical and corrupt I certainly would find it appalling. What I want to dig out by going through Erik’s comment is the way in which Palin is carrying the burden of all sorts of projections (including my own, no doubt) – which to my makes her a more interesting figure, not less.

Erik’s comments in italic:
I find your attachment to Gov. Palin very strange, as she evinces none of the honesty or forthrightness that you yourself do.

Thanks.

Her resignation is a strange mish-mash of motives, all of them mercurial and, apparently, obfuscatory at the least. First, she declared that she would not run for governor again, thus making herself a “lame duck” — one of the more enduring and not-at-all factually-based myths of American politics: that an exiting executive cannot get anything done. And then, citing her self-inflicted lame duckness, she stated that she would resign her term as governor 18 months early. This is nothing if not the political equivalent of “I’m taking my ball and going home!”

I don’t believe that’s a fair characterisation of her actions. I think she found herself drowning and unable to do the job she was elected to do; at the same time she has become a national figure and finds all sorts of opportunities for furthering her argument opening up there. I take her statement at face value, and I certainly don’t think that she’s finished as a political figure, rather the opposite. The ‘mercurial’ charge is an interesting one, as I don’t see her as being mercurial at all – on the contrary, this action seems entirely consistent with her publicly stated principles. It says something interesting about the perspective from which she is viewed that this action can be perceived as mercurial.

The citation of the ethics complaints by “outsiders” that “cost the state millions of dollars and thousands of employee hours” are likewise false or, when not false, exaggerations of a deliberately mendacious nature. Of the 15 ethics complaints filed against her in her tenure, only one was filed against her by non-Alaskans (a watchdog group arguing that the $150,000 worth of clothes and such given to her and her family by the RNC during the 2008 election constituted an illegal contribution under Alaska law). Likewise, the majority of complaints were filed by Alaskan Republican Party members.

To deal with this latter point briefly, it is unsurprising that the establishment Republican Party in Alaska (aka the Corrupt Bastards Club) has been fighting her and trying to diminish her – they were the ones who were ousted when she took charge.

The ethics investigations’ total cost to the state were just over US$275,000 — money that was owed by contract to the legal firms conducting the investigations whether they performed work during that time or not. Please allow me to reiterate that — outside auditors performed the actual investigations, not state employees, costing the state absolutely no work-hours from its employees whatsoever, for a total cost of a fraction of that Palin cites, and that from moneys that would have been paid no matter what.

This doesn’t seem to be true, see eg here, but I’m happy to explore it further. I would say, however, that it wouldn’t faze me if a politician maximised the ‘cost’ figure for political purposes, using the hourly cost of wages paid to public servants, as it is an absolutely standard practice. Whatever the true figure might be, the substantial point that Palin is making seems unarguable – much of her time, and her administration’s time, was being taken up with politically motivated “ethics” investigations. Again we have a sort of Rorschach test – there is enough material to compose a plausible-sounding case one way or another – and which way it is spun reveals the character of the person doing the spinning.

The most involved of the ethics complaints that was investigated was the one Palin filed against herself regarding “Troopergate” — whether or not she abused the power of her office in harassing her brother-in-law, a state trooper. She filed this complaint because, in so doing, the ethics investigation by statute superseded an investigation by the Alaska State Legislature that found she had indeed abused her office in this matter.

This seems a good example of a pejorative reading: the Alaska State Legislature pursued a politically motivated investigation of “Troopergate” which whilst finding that she had broken no law said that she had ‘abused her power’ (which was about as strong as could conceivably be defensible); the more thorough investigation gave her a totally clean bill of health. Seems like an astute and thoroughly defensible move to me.

In spending hundreds of thousands of dollars defending herself, it is revealed that Palin did so unnecessarily — most of the complaints, according to the ethics board, could have been addressed by her simply drafting a letter in response to each one detailing her position and reasoning on each decision called into question. She chose to hire an expensive, out-of-state lawyer — hardly a fiscally responsible act, unless one ascribes to the maxim that a politician with national ambitions must never explain oneself.

Well, this is her own money being spent, not the state’s, and if she felt, given the amount of flak being sent her way (and the scrutiny that she was under) that she wanted to be properly advised, I can’t see that as a problem. It’s certainly not something that is either hypocritical or dishonest.

Rather than manage the transition of power, Palin has been fishing. She behaves at no time like a statewoman and always like a rather petulant country aristocrat. The wounds she complains about are self-inflicted, from making herself a lame-duck governor to choosing to abrogate her duty to her electorate to choosing to instigate the financial costs to her family.

This seems a bizarre comment to me. One of the things that I find admirable about Palin is her refusal to sling mud at people – which is surely stateswoman-like? Given that all of this brouhaha was triggered by her agreeing to a request to be the VP candidate, in what way was all this self-inflicted? It seems to me that her accession to VP ruined any possibility of her continuing as governor. Her resignation a) acknowledges the new reality; b) establishes Parnell as a sympathetic successor with time to build up an incumbency advantage; and c) liberates her to take her agenda and message into the wider US political scene. The idea that Palin is a ‘petulant country aristocrat’ I find mind-boggling.

Palin gives lip-service to ideals you hold dear. But in all ways, her conduct gives the lie to her rhetoric. I would think that, as a priest, you would find such hypocrisy, used as it is to violate the trust of the duty she has to the people of Alaska, to be utterly appalling.

Well, I just don’t see the hypocrisy, rather the opposite. I see someone who believes in ethically sound and small government who – within pragmatic constraints – has achieved that. (And NMMNG I don’t see her record in Wasilla as much of a counter-argument to that, the increased debt was primarily to develop the sports centre, ie it was a mortgage supported by a referendum. Wikipedia seems balanced on this.)

Thing is, Palin does seem to be a hook for all sorts of projections and neuroses (not to suggest the commenters here are neurotic even if the blog-author is) and bits and pieces of evidence can be scraped together to justify all sorts of calumnies. Some assert that Palin is a brain-dead, trailer-trash, slutty and incompetent waste of space. Some assert that Palin is a machiavellian careerist hard-hearted psycho-bitch who is only in it for publicity and personal advancement. Others – like me – see her as being someone who is making it up as she goes along, but who is guided by a normal and well-grounded set of values pursued with integrity and character. Obviously time will tell which of these caricatures is closest to the truth. Yet there is one thing that everyone (except for the lunatic fringe, eg Andrew Sullivan) agrees on – she chose not to have an abortion when she could have, and now there is Trig Palin. That seems more in line with my characterisation of her personality than the other two.

Go Sarah!


I wasn’t going to comment on this, but….

The other day my therapist told me I was “different”. Obviously everyone is different, and he did say – reassuringly explicitly – that I wasn’t “different” in the sense of being dysfunctional (along the lines of, eg, crack addicts or something like that); another thing that my therapist said is that I’m not someone who needs therapy, I just want to grow as a person. It put me in mind of a comment from a friend in church about the recent unpleasantness in the parish (on which topic I might write something before too long – in brief, as it is no longer in any way a secret, I asked the Director of Music here to retire) who wrote to me – objecting to what I’d done – but did so in a really nice way, listing my various eccentricities, such as growing a ponytail and taking a service whilst wearing a Hawaiian shirt. That’s what the therapist had in mind – I’m an eccentric. Which is fine, I probably am.

I think that one of the reasons why people find me a bit eccentric is that, to borrow the cliche, I march to the sound of a different drum. I would say (I would wouldn’t I?) that I’m trying, more or less successfully, to follow what God is telling me to do, and that, inevitably, leads to conflict with the consensus of a particular community – any community. I also suspect that I’m keener on the truth – possibly to a pathological degree – than is comfortable for most people. (I should add that sometimes my pursuit of truth is a tilting at windmills; one example would be the 9/11 truth movement which I spent some time having sympathy for, but mostly don’t any more. Thing is, having explored the issue in a great deal of depth I end up in a place which is much more solidly grounded than before, even if where I end up is basically where conventional opinion is – to leave a place and return and know it for the first time – but that’s what happens when you grow.)

So, all that is by way of preamble, and why I mention it is because of all the crap that is being hurled at Palin over her decision to resign from being Governor – which is, of course, not much changed from all the crap that has been sent her way for most of the last year. She is marching to the sound of her own drum, she is an independent eccentric and it scares the willies out of conventional consensus opinion – because she has the capacity to be a game changer. First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

She said “Energy independence and national security, fiscal restraint, smaller government, and local control have been my priorities and will remain my priorities.” That’s a genuinely conservative statement of principles – and a statement of genuinely conservative principles which I’d support. In the context of the utter FUBAR of Obama’s economic policies I can well imagine her becoming the head of a revolutionary movement that takes her into higher reaches of power, not least given the three years of mounting disaster that the US will endure in the meantime. But maybe that’s just me tilting at windmills again.

Anyhow, I recognise, respect and admire her independence of character. Even if she never runs for political office again (and I wouldn’t blame her for making that decision): Go Sarah!