Category Archives: crisis

Meres Igge

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Stuart Staniford is my hero. Another astonishingly good analysis from him here, but this one looking not at Peak Oil but at sea level rise.

Bottom line – the sea level rise will happen more swiftly than expected, and be larger.

Which means for Mersea residents – much less reliable use of the Strood, beginning now. And probably no use of the Strood, in a couple of decades or so. And the bottom of the Lane will be unliveable. I wonder if where I live will become beach front property? (We’re about 10-15 feet above high tide level, I’d guess)

Ho hum.

BBC website on energy

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BBC ‘gets’ the energy crisis: here.

It was interesting to see that Bush came out with a fairly explicit nod to peak oil in his state of the union address. The particular measure he proposed is rather meaningless, but simply the fact that he was using the language of addiction, and pointing out the need to shift, that is important.

Energy Beyond Oil – Paul Mobbs

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If I were to recommend one book on the energy crisis, to a reader in the UK, it would be this one. It is thorough, running through all the aspects of the problem – Peak Oil, viability of alternatives, conservation and consumption. It is almost entirely non-partisan, and steers clear of discussions of foreign policy, concentrating primarily upon the physical constraints that a diminishment of energy represents. It is written from a UK perspective rather than a US or world perspective, which makes it more readable and relevant for a UK resident.

It reads in many ways like a school text-book, and I mean that as a compliment. There are a great number of ‘side boxes’ going into detail about various technical elements, and Mobbs takes great pains to explain all the different terms that he uses.

Of course, the bottom line remains the same however it is explained, and his essential point is expressed pithily: could you cut your energy use by 60%? I found his final discussion of alternative paths quite useful – the ‘burn everything’ model, as opposed to the ‘renewables only’ model. In a hundred years the amount of energy available to the economy from choosing those opposite paths is exactly the same(!) – the difference is that one will cause global warming, exacerbation of income inequality and associated chaos – whilst the other will minimise all those associated problems.

It is clear which way we must go. We just have to summon the spiritual will to walk that path.

Hmmm.

A fully wired future

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Much of the discussion in the Peak Oil community (eg in the Running on Empty discussion groups (ROE2)) is premised upon what is called a ‘fast collapse’, ie one where the various amenities of life on which we rely will rapidly fail. I am finding this less and less plausible as time goes on. My view is that the coming two decades will be very difficult, but that “civilisation” will continue through the crisis and that there is much to be hopeful for in the future. A recent post at The Oil Drum (by far the best detailed information on the oil supply) by the ever excellent Stuart Staniford states: “I continue to believe that all this modelling suggests the future decline rates are within the adaptive capacity of the economy — it’s a slow squeeze, as I put it last month. I’m not saying that there won’t be major economic hard times, but it does appear to me that peak oil is something that society can handle for quite some time to come”.

This makes sense to me. In graphic terms, Staniford provides this:

In his article, Staniford argues that the underlying trend of depletion (how quickly we run out of oil) will be in the green area, ie we will be able to adapt. I suspect it will be harder than that – the transition won’t be smooth, primarily due to the effect of geo-politics (Iran etc) – but I am persuaded that the depletion rate won’t have to be steep.

More particularly, I have been musing on the question of electricity supply. This was a comment from one poster on ROE2: “we must accept that all communication systems based on electronics and electricity will have a “rocky” future to say the least. We do not know what electronic parts will be manufactured in the future, their availability, and repair possibilities. We don’t know if electricity in a readily accessible source and storage will be available.”

I would make the following points:
– there are sources of electrical energy with significantly positive EROEI – as one example, see this article, which I’ve been thinking about a lot;
– there is therefore a capacity for a sustainable and reproducing industrial base;
– the only issue is how much of the world economy is lost before the system as a whole shifts onto the sustainable basis – how deep is the dip?

I keep on pondering the question ‘What will Google do?’ – what is to stop them, and companies like them, ensuring their own energy supplies on a sustainable basis, and thereby immunising themselves from the depression? It’s massively in their interest to do so – and nothing to stop them, once they realise what is going on – so that is what I expect to happen.

Electricity is here to stay – the future is wired, irrespective of Peak Oil.

PetroDollars and the Iranian Oil Bourse

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Good, hard headed and sober analysis pouring cold water on the conspiracy theory here; taking aim at an analysis here.

Since writing about this before, I’ve grown more sceptical – but I’m not yet completely convinced that it will have no effect on the exchange rate of the dollar.

As much as anything else, I see it as having a psychological effect – knocking the dollar off its pedestal – and along with many other reasons for dollar weakness, I can see it contributing to a more or less gentle decline in dollar value.

We shall see.

UPDATE: see also here.

Shockingly rich

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(Sermon, Evensong 15 Jan 06 – Isaiah 60 & Hebrews 6-7)

We are shockingly rich.

I do not mean that as a criticism of any one individual here, but as something which applies to us all, as a community, here in West Mersea, in England, in the West as a whole.

Let me tell you a story which will bring out what I mean. A former tutor of mine used to work in Southern India, where he lived for seven years, before returning to England. On his return, on arrival in their new home, his wife went to purchase some basics – bread and milk. Yet she couldn’t complete the purchase. When she looked at the prices for a pint of milk she couldn’t help translating it into what it would have meant for her friends back in India – that this purchase of a simple pint of milk could have fed a family of four for many days. She was so staggered by the difference in wealth that she had to return home empty-handed, to give herself time to get over the shock.

We are shockingly rich.

So should we despise our wealth? I don’t believe that it is as simple as that. The Scriptures are really very clear that wealth in itself is a good thing. The vision of the promised land is one of a place flowing with milk and honey; our reading from Isaiah is clear about the materiality of the good things promised from God: “Instead of bronze I will bring you gold” God has a very positive view of material wealth – indeed of materiality as a whole – that’s what the Incarnation means. What he most emphatically does not have a positive view of is great wealth next door to great poverty. Think of the story of Dives and Lazarus, for example.

The Scriptures are crystal clear that we are to love our neighbour as ourselves, and that this means we are not to let anyone fall by the wayside, abandoned and deserted by the community. For the poverty which most shocks God is not the absence of possessions – hardly that – but social exclusion. The inability of one member of a community to share in the common life of that community. Scripture is clear that this is what offends God deeply, and Scripture is also clear about what follows when a society embraces that pattern of life: there is judgement, and calamity, and the walls of Jerusalem are broken down and the people of Israel are taken off to Babylon.

When I consider our shocking wealth, and the degree of poverty and exclusion experienced by so many in our world, I tremble at the thought of our coming judgement.

Scripture is also clear about what gives rise to social exclusion – idolatry. It is when the community ceases to worship the living God, and erects another idol in His place, that is when the right relationships between the members of the community break down. So what is the idol that has been worshipped in our community? I believe that the idol is wealth, or, more specifically, economic growth. What politician could succeed by saying ‘we shouldn’t concern ourselves with economic growth so much’? There are politicians who say such things – yet they are not listened to, for our hearts are fearful, fearful of a return to hardship and starvation and unemployment and breadlines and soup kitchens. So we do not trust in the living God, we trust in growth. Yet growth is an idol. Think of what it means to say that a part of our life (the economic part) must grow and keep on growing forever. That is not indicative of health, it is, in fact, the definition of cancer – a group of cells that just keep on growing irrespective of the needs of the whole. Our economy has turned into a cancer in our common life.

God says ‘you will drink the milk of nations and be nursed at royal breasts’.

We say ‘gizza job’.

Those of you who came to my talk about oil the other day will be aware that I believe we are headed for a time of extreme economic hardship. I do not believe that we need be frightened of this. We need to be weaned away from our shocking riches and come back to the promises of the living God, who promises us life, life in all its fullness. The riches that God promises to us are the riches of a human community, made in His image, and sharing his likeness. That is what is promised to us, and that is what we can trust in. Not in our possessions, our accumulations of wealth, but the promises of the one who made us and redeemed us. “We have this hope as an anchor for the soul, firm and secure”.

So let us resolve to work together through whatever comes – trusting in the one who is faithful to his promises, and who will lead us to the promised land of Christ’s kingdom.

Father I place into your hands

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It’s been a much busier week than I was expecting – I have a ‘backlog of blogging’ to catch up on! which probably won’t be done until next week, but never mind.

One thing though. Lovelock’s comments induced another bout of doomer pessimism in me, which took a few days to shake off. Inevitable worrying, worrying, worrying, dog with his bone trying to crack the marrow….

And I remembered taking my grandmother’s funeral a few years ago: a lady of profound and long-term faith (a church warden for fifty years!!) and one of the hymns she had chosen for the service was a ‘children’s hymn’ – but it strikes me more and more profoundly as time goes on:

Father, I place into Your hands
The things I cannot do.
Father, I place into Your hands
The things that I’ve been through.
Father, I place into Your hands
The way that I should go,
For I know I always can trust You.

Father, I place into Your hands
My friends and family.
Father, I place into Your hands
The things that trouble me.
Father, I place into Your hands
The person I would be,
For I know I always can trust You.

Father, we love to see Your face,
We love to hear Your voice.
Father, we love to sing Your praise
And in Your name rejoice.
Father, we love to walk with You
And in Your presence rest,
For we know we always can trust You.

Father, I want to be with You
And do the things You do.
Father, I want to speak the words
That You are speaking too.
Father, I want to love the ones
That You will draw to You,
For I know that I am one with You.

World War Three, again

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Good article by Niall Ferguson here.

Interesting to observe the issue of Iran climbing up the agenda of the news bulletins. It has higher to go yet. The trouble is that the world needs Iran (its oil and gas) more than Iran needs the world, so sanctions – even if they get applied – will be meaningless and cosmetic, further reinforcing Admadinajad’s beliefs that the West is craven and that Allah will support him in his actions.

I’m more convinced than ever that the situation is fubar, but I’m a bit more optimistic that it won’t lead to WW3, simply because I can see Russia and China benefiting more from sitting on the sidelines (possibly selling arms) while the US (and UK) get bogged down in very serious ground warfare, and while their economies go into meltdown.

So that’s the good news….

The more I ponder it, the more I think an attack on Iran will be the same as the Titanic hitting the iceberg. There will be a big jolt, and then things will stabilise, and the powers that be will reassure everyone that it’s all OK, nothing to worry about. Meanwhile, the ship of oil consumption begins to sink, and all that has been built on top of it will sink with it.

Ironically, it might make all the Peak Oil worrying completely irrelevant – the West shifts on to non-oil based economies (for global warming concerns as well, for example) – and by the time the oil supply situation has stabilised, we’ve moved off and away – and nobody cares that the oil supply has passed its peak. Oil will again be cheap, because nobody will want it.

Well, that’s me trying to be optimistic!!