Monthly Archives: November 2005

Tax, fourth turning, and uncoupling the Anglosphere

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Had a quick review of The Fourth Turning last night – it is still one of the main over view pictures shaping my thinking. Yet I was musing on one aspect of it: the link between the US and the UK. It seems to me that Peak Oil will have very different effects on the two economies, and that the effect of this may be to push the UK much more into the European sphere, rather than the Atlantic.

If oil trebles in price, then, by and large, the price paid in the US trebles, as there is very little tax on it. In contrast, in the UK, there is a very high level of tax. That means two things – a rise in price is much smaller in the UK, and the government has the option of reducing tax (and raising revenue elsewhere) to avoid severe distortions in the economy. So the UK is in a much better state to cope with any price rises from an oil shock, compared to the US.

It also has a more extensive public transport system, especially rail, which will come in useful.

It is also solvent. The US is not. The US is, in fact, in a tremendously weak position financially, and a systemic shock like Peak Oil could cause hyperinflation there, without too much stretching of the imagination (part of the argument of the Leeb book – and I think Leeb was too optimistic).

Hyperinflation destroys the middle classes and provokes extreme government response.
That is very scary.

Twilight in the desert

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Read Matthew Simmons’ book ‘Twilight in the Desert’. Very interesting, although also very technical, and I must confess to skipping some of the middle chapters when he goes through the different oil fields in Saudi Arabia. Unless you’re a geologist I think you can get the gist from reading just one…

But his main point is sobering. The Saudi oil reserves are nothing like as extensive as generally believed, and given the production from the existing oil fields that has taken place, especially over the last twenty years, it is plausible to think that Saudi oil production will begin to decline within the next few years, possibly quite suddenly. Well if that happens, that will be the oil shock to end all oil shocks.

Other links for Simmons work (he’s the lead Investment Banker for the oil industry) are here.

G Wiz

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An electric car that I’m thinking about here. Would be perfect for pottering about the parishes, or into Colchester. But the big downside is having to take it to Southall in London to be serviced. What’s the point of going without petrol if you have to use petrol to take it 100 miles away to be serviced.

Still might get one though. Would pay for itself in a few years.

The parable of the talents

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A couple of weeks ago we had this parable in the Matthew version for Sunday, and in the Luke version for the following Wednesday. Doing a bit of background reading made me wonder about the right way to interpret it.

My favourite lectionary site had a link to a remarkable paper that persuaded me that the references to a ‘king’ in Matthew’s parables were not necessarily – or even usually – references to Jesus or God, but in fact had specific political and contemporary resonances for those listening to Jesus teach. And I recall – though I cannot track down quite where – a reference to (I think) one of the Herods going to Rome to receive approval to become King ruling over the land of Israel. So I think there is this contemporary resonance to the parable of the talents – and that it isn’t, in the first place, a question of encouraging Calvinistic prudence.

So what is it about? Well, let’s run with the idea that Jesus is referring to a specific king (first) and that he is criticising a particular attitude, probably of the Pharisees (second) – given that this is where the parable fits in Matthew, in the context of the woes etc. Clearly the Pharisees, and even the general population, would have identified with the third servant, who didn’t provide the wicked king with a return on the investment made. And it is this attitude that Jesus is criticising.

Might it be that in fact Jesus is criticising the attitude of militant resistance? In other words, that where there is a usurper on the throne, the point need not be to overthrow or resist such a king – that reaps where they do not sow – but to get on with the business of life, thereby possibly achieving authority locally (over the ‘ten cities’ – presumably the area of the Decapolis?) leading to greater wealth for all? So an emphasis on prudence – not because the king is God, but because the king is wicked and exploitative, and that it doesn’t matter about whether the king gets more from you if you do more, what matters is ensuring that there is sufficient wealth to go round. The militant resistance of the third servant is held up as destructive; the cooperation is held up as fruitful.

This seems to chime with the idea that God rains upon the just and the unjust etc. We shouldn’t get caught up with, if you like, resisting capitalist exploitation. We should concern ourselves with God prospering the work of our hands.

I’m not entirely happy with this reading, but I prefer it to seeing the king as God, ready to damn us for being afraid.

In the pipe

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When I was a kid I used to really enjoy reading war comics, like Victor and Battle Action. There was one story that appeared in a collection (possibly a ‘Commando’ half size) called ‘In the Pipe’.

The story went like this…

Our brave tommy hero is with his fellow soldiers pinned down by gunfire from an advancing German troop. They are on one side of a clearing in a wood; our boys are on the other. The trouble is that our boys are running out of ammo. Fortunately, the leader of the german troop is a complete coward. He keeps ordering some of his men to attack, who are then cut down by the British guns. But eventually the Brits run out of ammunition.

Our boys are close enough to be able to hear what is going on on the German side, and they pick up the idea that the German leader is unpleasant and unpopular. Then our brave tommy hero has the idea – maybe one of his comrades was shot when he still had a bullet ‘in the pipe’ – so he searches through the guns of his fellow soldiers until he finds a bullet – the last bullet that the Brits have.

Meanwhile, the German troop leader sees that the Brits have stopped firing, and thinks that they have run out of ammunition – giving him the ‘courage’ to lead an attack himself. So he strides out into the clearing at the head of his troops – and our brave tommy hero shoots him dead with the last bullet.

The German second-in-command (a corporal I guess) says to the rest of his troop ‘that’s enough fighting for one day’ – and so our brave tommy hero lives to fight another day.

~~~

I wasn’t planning to say much about the story. It’s just that it’s been on my mind a bit recently, because after the great dislocation, there will be an awful lot of ‘inventory’ lying around waiting to be used. So those communities that remain will have sufficient resources to keep elements of civilisation – like blogging – going for quite a while. We won’t be able to build lots of new computers. But there will be lots of old computers lying around waiting to be cannibalised for spare parts….

The Long Goodbye

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Watched this classic 70’s movie a couple of weeks ago, but forgot to write it up. I really enjoyed it, particularly the pacing, so much less frenetic than contemporary films, but I had a strong sense that there was a lot that I was missing, in terms of context, reference and background. I’ll have to do some more research on Chandler and film noir, and then watch it again.

Daredevil (Director’s Cut)

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I always thought Matt Murdock was blond? Anyhow, Ben Affleck isn’t too bad as the man without fear. Quite a fun film, and Jennifer Garner is always great. Didn’t quite achieve what it might have done though. For comic book fans only I guess.

Control, trust, hope

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I wonder if you are familiar with the Enneagram?

My previous spiritual director was well acquainted with it – used to teach it for the church in various locations – and we came to the conclusion that I was an ‘eight’ – there are nine types, signified by numbers, but with more interesting ‘descriptions’ as well.

The principal issues for an eight revolve around fear, control and trust. Eights interpret their earliest experiences in terms of being bullied, which provoke various strategies to achieve safety – in their extreme, they are strategies to pursue invulnerability. The first questions that an eight will ask are about who is in control – and should they be in control? Eights are happy under a strong authority, but if there isn’t a clear authority, then they will move forward to take control themselves.

So: fear moves towards control, but the path of spiritual growth for the eight is to move from that control to trusting. For the truth is that God is in control, and there can never be a time when we do not surrender to God, and God’s will. God is in charge, and that is the spiritual issue for the eight.

Which is why the issue of peak oil has been on my mind so much. I do have some relevant background experience on the issue, partly from understanding economics, but also from my time in the Civil Service working on the nuclear industry. Until a month or so ago, I accepted Bjorn Lomborg‘s analysis of the energy situation, viz that oil supplies have increased and are increasing, and that the rise in oil prices will of themselves enforce the gradual transition from oil to alternative energy sources.

What understanding Peak Oil has done is knock away that confidence – in other words, here is the prospect of havoc in our society, and for someone who values control, ie things being under control, that is profoundly disconcerting. It has brought into the open various assumptions that I had made about the pattern of my life and the path that it might reasonably be expected to take. I now think that my working life – ie the next thirty years – will be very different. (How do you make God laugh? – tell him your long term plans.)

In the Daily Office at the moment we use the language of ‘the darkness of this age that is passing away’. I take comfort from that; from the knowledge that the church has abided through crises similar to the one we are now facing; and that God will not leave himself without witnesses.

Yet an abiding hope for the future is not the same as a confidence that I will see it; or that my family will see it; or even that our local society (Mersea, Essex, England, the West) will see it.

For the other central concerns of an eight revolve around justice. Our society – globalised and oil dependent – is profoundly unjust. And unjust societies are unsustainable – it was part of the genius of the prophets to recognise that; think of Amos and the plumb line.

I remember reading this article a few years ago. It’s relevance increases the more time goes on. We should tremble more when we consider that God is just.

And yet.

“Yet this I call to mind and therefore I have hope: Because of the LORD’s great love we are not consumed, for his compassions never fail. They are new every morning; great is your faithfulness. I say to myself, “The LORD is my portion; therefore I will wait for him.” The LORD is good to those whose hope is in him, to the one who seeks him; it is good to wait quietly for the salvation of the LORD.It is good for a man to bear the yoke while he is young. Let him sit alone in silence, for the LORD has laid it on him. Let him bury his face in the dust— there may yet be hope. Let him offer his cheek to one who would strike him, and let him be filled with disgrace. For men are not cast off by the Lord forever. Though he brings grief, he will show compassion, so great is his unfailing love. For he does not willingly bring affliction or grief to the children of men.”

It’s not paranoia

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“The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and long-lasting. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and discontinuous.”

Summary of formal report prepared for the US government by Robert Hirsch and others, Spring 2005, available here.

The issue is not the theoretical viability of human society and civilisation in the absence of fossil fuels. That is possible with existing technology – by and large.

The issue is the transition from one state to another state – the phase transition. I can’t see anyway in which that transition can be accomplished without a significant loss of utilised energy in the system as a whole.

Let me translate that into something less obscure: the system using abundant and cheap energy supports a certain population; the system using scarce and expensive energy will support a much lower population. The transition is going to be painful, and we need to begin planning for that transition now.

Which makes me think about small scale power stations for Mersea Island – a tidal barrage?

Actually, what I think most necessary is the strengthening and building up of community. People working together provides much more than the agglomeration of individuals. That also has the benefit of not being futile endeavour should all these fears prove misplaced…